It was eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After the England international drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the wins have piled up.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, they look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still find their top level.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers now would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
